Cerebrospinal Fluid Patterns and the Risk of Future Dementia in Early, Incident Parkinson Disease.

IMPORTANCE Alterations in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) have been found in Parkinson disease (PD) and in PD dementia (PDD), but the prognostic importance of such changes is not well known. In vivo biomarkers for disease processes in PD are important for future development of disease-modifying therapies. OBJECTIVE To assess the diagnostic and prognostic value of a panel of CSF biomarkers in patients with early PD and related disorders. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Regional population-based, prospective cohort study of idiopathic parkinsonism that included patients diagnosed between January 1, 2004, and April 30, 2009, by a movement disorder team at a university hospital that represented the only neurology clinic in the region. Participants were 128 nondemented patients with new-onset parkinsonism (104 with PD, 11 with multiple system atrophy, and 13 with progressive supranuclear palsy) who were followed up for 5 to 9 years. At baseline, CSF from 30 healthy control participants was obtained for comparison. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Cerebrospinal fluid concentrations of neurofilament light chain protein, Aβ1-42, total tau, phosphorylated tau, α-synuclein, and heart fatty acid-binding protein were quantified by 2 blinded measurements (at baseline and after 1 year). Follow-up included an extensive neuropsychological assessment. As PD outcome variables, mild cognitive impairment and incident PDD were diagnosed based on published criteria. RESULTS Among the 128 study participants, the 104 patients with early PD had a different CSF pattern compared with the 13 patients with progressive supranuclear palsy (baseline area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.87; P < .0001) and the 30 control participants (baseline area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.69; P = .0021). A CSF biomarker pattern associated with the development of PDD was observed. In PD, high neurofilament light chain protein, low Aβ1-42, and high heart fatty acid-binding protein at baseline were related to future PDD as analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Combined, these early biomarkers predicted PDD with high accuracy (hazard ratio, 11.8; 95% CI, 3.3-42.1; P = .0001) after adjusting for possible confounders. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The analyzed CSF biomarkers have potential usefulness as a diagnostic tool in patients with parkinsonism. In PD, high neurofilament light chain protein, low Aβ1-42, and high heart fatty acid-binding protein were related to future PDD, providing new insights into the etiology of PDD.